MONTE CARLO, Monaco — Europe’s largest reinsurers expect downward pressure on pricing to persist at upcoming renewals, particularly in property catastrophe business, but say current rates remain generally adequate and that they plan to maintain underwriting discipline as capacity increases.
Executives at Munich Re, Swiss Re, Hannover Re and Scor acknowledged during briefings at the Rendez-Vous de Septembre that the market has changed significantly since the sharp increase in pricing at the 2023 renewals, as reinsurers have rebuilt capital and limited catastrophe losses have increased available capacity.
How far prices fall at Jan. 1, though, will depend partly on catastrophe activity during the remainder of the year and the competition that develops during negotiations.
The meeting in Monaco this week, which draws thousands of underwriters, brokers and others to the tiny principality on the French Riviera for several days of back-to-back meetings, marks the traditional start of the year-end reinsurance renewal season, as reinsurers try to set the tone for the next few months of negotiations.
Further softening appears likely if no major catastrophes hit during the rest of the year, but it’s too early to estimate the size of any decreases, said Stefan Golling, a member of Munich Re’s board of management who oversees global clients and its North American portfolio.
Global property catastrophe rates were down about 16% for 2026 through the midyear renewals, according to Marsh Re’s rate-on-line index.
The market has largely maintained profitable underwriting strategies as prices have fallen; however, there are individual segments “where we are coming closer to the edge, where maybe we also walk away from business,” Mr. Golling said, pointing to U.S. liability and some property catastrophe programs where Munich Re has reduced capacity.
Munich Re anticipated a more competitive market when it developed its 2030 strategy last year, said Thomas Blunck, a Munich Re board member and chair of its reinsurance committee.
“We knew this was coming,” he said.
Paris-based Scor, meanwhile, sees an opportunity to expand its relatively small property catastrophe portfolio even as prices decline.
The reinsurance industry has rebuilt substantial capital since rates rose sharply three years ago, said Scor CEO Thierry Léger.
According to Aon’s most recent report, global reinsurance capital stood at $800 billion on June 30, 2026.
“There’s a lot of capital out there … and I clearly expect an ongoing competitive environment in reinsurance, but also in insurance,” he said.
Most lines remain adequately priced, with U.S. casualty and cyber notable exceptions, said Jean-Paul Conoscente, CEO of property and casualty at Scor.
Scor remains underrepresented in property catastrophe reinsurance and would like to expand, provided prices do not fall too sharply, he said.
“We are in the position where the rate adequacy of property cat has been very strong. The fact that rates have decreased is reducing that, but still, compared with the other business that we write, it’s still a good rate adequacy,” Mr. Conoscente said.
Hannover Re executives also expect prices to decline while retention levels and other terms remain relatively stable.
Most of Hannover Re’s portfolio remains adequately priced despite the softening over the past year, said Sven Althoff, a member of its executive board responsible for property/casualty business.
If catastrophe losses remain relatively moderate for the rest of 2026, “we can expect that there will be additional supply available for the 2027 renewals, and in this environment, we do expect that there will be further pressure on pricing,” he said.
Hannover Re nevertheless expects the Jan. 1 renewals to look broadly similar to the previous two renewal cycles in terms of retentions and other terms and conditions, Mr. Althoff said.
“We are starting from a risk-adequate level,” he said.
Increased capital and moderate catastrophe losses have made the market more competitive, while the underlying risks have not diminished, said Clemens Jungsthöfel, CEO of Hannover Re.
“Reliability has a price,” he said. “Providing reliable protection through the cycle requires underwriting discipline, sustainable margins and appropriate terms and conditions.”
Swiss Re executives were more reluctant to predict the outcome of the Jan. 1 negotiations.
“The market will ultimately make the price. It’s too early,” said Urs Baertschi, CEO of property/casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re. “There’s a lot of time left in the year. A lot of things can happen still.”
Swiss Re remains particularly cautious about U.S. liability business, where rising jury verdicts and litigation funding continue to drive losses.
“Our underwriting appetite for new liability business is almost zero,” said Gianfranco Lot, chief underwriting officer of property/casualty reinsurance at Swiss Re. “We keep what we underwrite, but we don’t want to enlarge our footprint in U.S. liability classes.”
Swiss Re has little to no appetite for U.S. umbrella and liability business, although it remains interested in some other casualty lines, including workers compensation and personal auto, Mr. Lot said.
